After 100 games and over a month of exciting football, a FIFA World Cup 2026 has reached its climax with only four teams left. It’s history on the finish line of the game in more ways than one. For the first time since FIFA introduced its world rankings in 1992, the world’s top four teams – France, Argentina, Spain and England – have all advanced to the last four of the World Cup. It was also the first time since the 1990 edition that all four of the semi-finals were former world champions, showing the type and quality of the teams still in contention.Much has been said over the past month about who will win the inaugural 48-team FIFA World Cup, a tournament that has been expanded to include 104 matches and 32 knockout games. There were surprise packages, big kills and emotional outbursts along the way, but as the tournament enters its final week, the contenders are those who are chosen by FIFA to be.After six football tournaments – three group games, followed by the Round of 32, Round of 16 and quarter-finals – the top four teams in the world are only two wins away from taking the most coveted trophy in world football.The semi-final schedule promises two mouth-watering contests. Spain faces France in Arlington, Texas, on July 15, while defending champions Argentina face England in Atlanta on July 16. The losing teams will compete for the third playoff spot in Miami on July 19, before the winners face off in the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 20.
Who are the fans? Betting markets provide information
With four heavyweights remaining, one of the biggest questions among fans is simple: Who will take home the trophy?Although predictions remain subjective, betting markets often provide a useful snapshot of public opinion. The two biggest platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, have attracted a lot of interest in the tournament, with a combined bet of more than $5.3 billion in various FIFA World Cup markets. About $4.2 billion was stolen on Polymarket and $1.1 billion on Kalshi for predictions ranging from the winner of the tournament with the Golden Boot to the Golden Ball, Best Young Player, Golden Glove and Fair Play awards.Separate prediction markets were also created for each semifinal, highlighting how fans expected the final four to play out.According to Kalshi, France will go into the semifinal against Spain as favourites, with a 59% chance of reaching the final compared to Spain’s 41%. More than $9 million has been involved in this process.The second semi-final looks very close. England have a slight advantage over Argentina’s defenders, with the Three Lions given a 54% chance going forward compared to Argentina’s 46%. About $2.8 million was stolen from the market itself.Polymarket shows the same. The platform also favors the final of France vs. England, with more money sold for the France-Spain semifinal ($7.6M) than Argentina against England ($1M).
France looked like clear favourites
When it comes to the actual winner, the betting markets strongly favor France.Across the two betting platforms, around 39% of bets have backed Didier Deschamps’ side to win the World Cup, making Les Bleus the favorites going into last week.The battle behind them is very strong. England is the second favourite, attracting around 22% of predictions, slightly ahead of Spain, which is around 21%.
Perhaps the most surprising is the view of the market in Argentina. Despite defending champions and boasting Lionel Messi, they are currently the least favorite of the remaining four teams, with around 18% of predictions supporting them to successfully defend their title.A total of 4 billion dollars has been stolen from the winning team at Polymarket, while almost 1.2 billion dollars have been bet on Kalshi.The latest addition to Polymarket also shows how French it is. The France vs England final is considered the most probable, with an estimated probability of 35%. A replay of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is seen as the second most likely at 28%, followed by Spain vs England (21%) and Spain vs Argentina (20%).
The Golden Boot competition remains intact
The Golden Boot competition has been one of the most exciting parts of the competition.Going into the semi-finals, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi are on top with eight goals each, while Harry Kane is still in contention with six.The betting markets are heavily favoring Mbappe to finish as the top scorer in the competition. More than $55 million has been sold in the Golden Boot auction at Polymarket, with another $16 million at Kalshi.Mbappe commands 56% of predictions on Polymarket and 61% on Kalshi, while Messi follows with 34% and 31% respectively. Kane is still a distant third, receiving only 5% of predictions on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.With every contender still alive in the competition, the Golden Boot race is expected to go all the way to the final.
The Golden Ball, Young Player and Golden Glove races are heating upThe Ballon d’Or award, given to the best player in the competition, has also attracted attention.About $7 million was stolen from Polymarket and $3.3 million from Kalshi in this category. Mbappe (56% on Playmarket & 61% on Kalshi) also leads the betting, while Messi (34% & 31%) remains his main competitor. Englishman Jude Bellingham (18% on both) is back in contention after another good campaign.For the Best Young Player award, Spanish player Lamine Yamal is the favorite. The youngster enjoys 42% support in Polymarket and 46% in Kalshi, ahead of France’s Desire Doue, while Spanish defender Pau Cubarsi completes the top three.The Golden Glove Championship is also competitive. French goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the betting with 37-38% support on both platforms, ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon.Even the Fair Play Award has generated a lot of interest among punters. Norway, despite being eliminated, are still favorites to take the honors, attracting almost 90% of the predictions on all betting platforms.
